When Assia Billig became Chief Actuary of the Government of Canada in April 2019, no one could have predicted the period of change ahead.
Over the next seven and a half years, Canada and the world would face a global pandemic, renewed economic volatility, growing concern around climate-related risk, rapid technological change and an increasingly uncertain public-policy environment. For the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCA) at the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, that meant continuing to provide independent, objective and evidence-based advice at a time when sound, long-term analysis had rarely felt more important.
As she prepares to retire from her role as Chief Actuary in mid-October 2026, Assia says that responsibility has always been at the heart of the role.
“The work is technical,” she says. “But it is really about providing objective information that helps decision-makers make sound choices for these programs and for current and future generations.”
As Chief Actuary, Assia has overseen three triennial Canada Pension Plan valuation cycles, worked with three independent peer-review panels and signed many reports. But when asked what makes her most proud, she does not begin with her own accomplishments. Instead, she points to the work of the office and the people behind it.
“I am proud of the role our office has played, and continues to play, in helping Canadians have confidence in important public programs such as the Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security, Employment Insurance and other plans.”
The work behind public confidence
The OCA’s work supports some of Canada’s most important public programs. Its reports help governments, decision-makers and Canadians better understand the long-term financial implications of today’s choices.
It is work built on assumptions, modelling, actuarial judgment and careful communication – and its impact reaches far beyond technical reports.
In Assia’s view, the role of actuaries is not to predict the future, but to help people understand risk, uncertainty and the range of possible outcomes.
That distinction has guided much of her work as Chief Actuary. One of the office’s major areas of focus has been improving how uncertainty is communicated in actuarial reports. For public programs that depend on long-term projections, how uncertainty is explained can be just as important as the numbers themselves.
Precise forecasts are not possible over a 75-year horizon. Assumptions will change. New risks will emerge. Unexpected events will occur. That is why actuarial reports must do more than present a single view of the future. They must help readers understand a range of possible outcomes and the implications of each.
Bringing emerging risks into the conversation
One milestone from Assia’s time as Chief Actuary was the introduction of climate risk scenarios into CPP actuarial reporting for the 31st CPP actuarial report.
It also reflected a broader role for actuaries: helping policymakers understand emerging risks and assess their long-term financial implications.
Climate-related risk, she notes, is not going away. Nor are the many other forces reshaping public programs, pension plans, insurers and public finances.
Over her career, Assia has seen the nature of uncertainty change significantly. When she entered the profession 30 years ago, population aging was already recognized as an important issue, but it was still largely viewed as a projection. Today, it is a reality. Financial market volatility was well understood, but many pension plans remained in strong financial health. Since then, Canada and the world have faced major market downturns, technological disruption, geopolitical instability and unexpected shocks such as COVID-19.
The amount of available data has also increased dramatically. More data allows for deeper and more informed analysis, but it also presents new challenges. Chief among them is the need to distinguish short-term signals from long-term trends.
These changes reinforce the importance of actuarial work.
“Working with uncertainty is not a reason for inaction,” she says. “If anything, it is a call for action.”
Behind every policy are people
One of Assia’s strongest messages for actuaries who want their work to have a broader impact is to remember the human dimension of public policy.
“Behind any public policy, there are people,” she emphasizes. “It can be easy to lose sight of this when working with models, assumptions and projections.”
In the public-policy context, analysis often involves understanding how proposed changes affect different groups of people. There may be “winners” and “losers.” There may be difficult trade-offs between public funding, private responsibility and family support.
Recognizing those impacts is, in Assia’s view, one of the most important parts of the work.
It is also one reason she believes actuaries will continue to play an important role in helping Canadians understand major societal issues.
Issues ahead for Canada and Canada’s actuaries
Health care and long-term care are especially important to Assia.
As Canadians live longer, demand for health services will continue to grow, along with the prevalence of chronic conditions and the need for assistance with daily living. Actuaries can help governments assess financing options, forecast future demand and consider how prevention, innovation and emerging technologies may affect health outcomes and costs.
The same is true for climate change, technological disruption, artificial intelligence and shifts in income distribution. These complex issues will require actuaries to work alongside economists, demographers, health experts, climate scientists, technology specialists and other professionals.
That is why Assia believes the actuary of the future will need more than strong quantitative skills, important though they remain.
The skills that will matter most
For Assia, the future of the profession depends on actuaries’ ability to combine technical expertise with judgment, curiosity and professional integrity.
That means bringing together a broad range of skills and perspectives, including:
- Strong quantitative and analytical skills, particularly as actuarial work becomes increasingly complex.
- Data literacy and technological proficiency, including the ability to work with large amounts of data, traditional models and emerging tools.
- The ability to question model outputs, understand their limitations and apply sound professional judgment.
- Clear communication skills, especially when explaining complex information to decision-makers without technical backgrounds.
- A broad understanding of public policy, including how actuarial analysis informs larger social, economic and policy decisions.
- Openness to interdisciplinary work, as many emerging risks require actuaries to work alongside economists, demographers, health experts, climate scientists, technology specialists and others.
- Integrity and professional courage, including a willingness to communicate uncertainty honestly, even when the message is difficult.
She also believes actuaries must pay close attention to small trends before they become major issues. Changes in longevity, fertility, health, income distribution and technology may develop gradually, but over time they can have significant implications for public programs and society. Actuaries, she argues, should not hesitate to examine and communicate downside scenarios.
“It is better to be prepared for an adverse future than not to think about it.”
A career still in motion
As she prepares to retire from her role as Chief Actuary, Assia is not stepping away from the profession. She plans to continue actuarial work through consulting, with a focus on contributing to social security, particularly in developing countries. She also intends to remain active as a volunteer with the CIA and the International Actuarial Association.
She is also looking forward to spending more time with her family, including a young grandchild in France.
Still, her connection to the profession remains strong. A mathematician by education with a PhD in mathematics, Assia did not begin with actuarial work as an obvious career path. A chance encounter with actuaries helped steer her toward the profession, and she looks back with pride on a career that includes not only her time as Chief Actuary but also earlier work, including the expansion of the Canada Pension Plan.
Confidence in the next generation
Assia is optimistic about the future of the profession.
Throughout her career, she has seen actuaries adapt, evolve and move into emerging fields. She sees the profession playing an increasingly important role in addressing societal issues and informing public policy, and she is encouraged by the next generation of actuaries.
“They are tech-savvy, they are developing their judgment, they are curious and they are very adaptable,” she says.
For a profession built on long-term thinking, that adaptability may prove to be one of its greatest strengths. The risks facing Canada are changing. The tools are changing. The data is changing. But the need for independent, objective and evidence-based advice remains constant.
After nearly eight years as Chief Actuary, Assia leaves the role with confidence in the office, pride in the profession and conviction that actuarial work will remain essential in helping Canadians navigate an uncertain future.
Assia Billig, FCIA, FSA, PhD, is Chief Actuary of the Government of Canada. Over a 30-year actuarial career spanning consulting, public service and international social-security work, she has focused on pensions, long-term projections and the financial sustainability of public programs. She joined the Office of the Chief Actuary in 2008 and became Chief Actuary in April 2019.
This article reflects the opinion of the contributor and does not represent an official statement of the CIA.