The role of actuaries in public policy

Over the course of my presidency, I have had the opportunity to engage with members, policymakers, regulators, and business leaders across Canada. One observation has become increasingly clear: many of the issues shaping Canada’s future are long-term challenges, yet the decisions surrounding them are often made under significant uncertainty.

Population aging, rising health-care costs, climate change, retirement security, fiscal pressures, and economic uncertainty all require decisions today that will shape outcomes for generations. Yet these decisions are often made in an environment of competing priorities, limited resources, and imperfect information.

In a world that increasingly demands immediate answers, long-term thinking has never been more important.

This is where our profession brings unique value.

As actuaries, we are trained to assess uncertainty, quantify risk, and understand how today’s decisions affect future outcomes. We help decision-makers look beyond immediate pressures and evaluate long-term sustainability. Most importantly, we help improve the quality of decisions made under uncertainty.

This role is deeply aligned with our profession’s public interest mandate. Since its founding, the CIA has advanced actuarial science and applied it to public affairs through independent, objective analysis of social, economic, and financial issues. In other words, our role is to improve how decisions are evaluated, particularly when financial security and long-term sustainability are at stake. That mandate remains as relevant today as ever.

This conviction is one of the reasons the CIA has identified public policy as a strategic priority in our 2026-2029 Strategic Plan, reflecting our commitment to ensuring actuarial insight contributes meaningfully to issues that matter to Canadians.

The value we bring

Good public policy is rarely about finding perfect answers. More often, it involves navigating competing priorities and difficult trade-offs under conditions of uncertainty. The role of the actuary is not to make those choices. It is to help decision-makers better understand the implications of those choices so decisions can be made with greater transparency, confidence, and accountability.

We have seen the value of actuarial insight before.

The reforms to the Canada Pension Plan in the 1990s remain one of the clearest examples. Actuarial projections identified long-term financing challenges and helped inform reforms that improved the plan’s sustainability, which are still benefiting Canadians today. The lesson extends beyond pensions. It demonstrates the value of bringing disciplined, long-term analysis into policy discussions before challenges become crises.

The same opportunity exists today.

In our public health-care system, an aging population, rising treatment costs, and fiscal pressures are increasing the need for long-term analysis of costs, funding, and program design. Actuarial modelling can help identify sustainability risks early, support gradual and manageable adjustments, and promote stable, transparent, and affordable health-care financing over time. That is why strengthening the actuarial profession’s contribution within Canada’s public health-care system is a goal in our upcoming strategic plan.

Climate-related financial risk continues to affect Canadians’ well-being, as governments, businesses, and communities navigate growing uncertainty and build resilience. We also see this in retirement income security and broader financial system stability, where the long-term sustainability of retirement income programs depends on continued monitoring as Canadians live longer.

While these issues differ in important ways, they share a common characteristic: uncertainty. Better outcomes depend on stronger modelling, clearer measurement of risk, and a deeper understanding of long-term consequences. This is where actuarial insight can make a meaningful difference.

Our value extends beyond technical expertise. We bring a disciplined approach to evidence, a commitment to professional standards, and a responsibility to serve the public interest. We challenge assumptions, test alternative scenarios, and help decision-makers understand uncertainty rather than ignore it.

At a time when public policy issues are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, those capabilities are more important than ever.

Our opportunity as a profession

If actuarial insight is to continue playing a meaningful role in shaping Canada’s future, we must be willing to engage – and engage early. We must continue to contribute to public dialogue, share our expertise, participate in consultations, conduct research, and bring actuarial perspectives into conversations where important decisions are being made.

This responsibility does not rest solely with the CIA. It belongs to all of us.

Whether through your work, your research, your volunteer contributions, or your engagement with stakeholders, each of us has an opportunity to demonstrate the value of actuarial thinking and strengthen the profession’s voice in matters of public interest.

As actuaries, that is what we are trained to do. Our opportunity is not simply to analyze risk. It is to help Canadians navigate it. And in doing so, we can continue fulfilling our profession’s most important purpose: serving the public interest and helping Canadians face the future with confidence.

Angelita Graham, FCIA, FSA, AccBD, MBA, is the 2025-26 President of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. A Partner and Toronto Office Leader at Mercer, she leads more than 500 colleagues and advises organizations on complex workforce, pension and risk matters. A long‑time CIA volunteer, Angelita has served in key leadership roles since 2008, including serving as Chair of the Eligibility and Education Council and being recognized with the CIA Award of Excellence in 2020. She champions education, professionalism, inclusion and the public interest, bringing a bold, forward‑looking vision to the actuarial profession.