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Joint CIA/SOA research study: Application of futures research methods to economic variables

A new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables released jointly by the CIA and SOA acquaints actuaries with the application of methods of futures research that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices. A summary is also available.

In addition to the research report, the futures research tools used to generate the results are available upon request, both the Real Time Delphi (RTD) software and the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) software. The RTD software facilitates the systematic means of collecting opinions from a group of experts on the quantum of the economic variables at various points in the future along with the rationales for those estimates. The TIA (Excel) software facilitates modification of the forecasts derived in the RTD results to reflect perceptions about probabilities and impacts from future potential external developments –economic, political, technological, or social.

For any questions, contact Shlomit Jacobson, CIA Program Manager, Research.

Announcement Number2020-06(07196) June 3, 2020